What does "theory of change" represent in program planning?

In program planning, the concept of "theory of change" specifically refers to an outline of the expected process for achieving change. This framework helps to clarify the steps necessary to achieve desired outcomes by mapping out how and why a desired change is expected to occur. It identifies the activities, short-term outcomes, intermediate outcomes, and ultimate goals that form the basis of the program’s operations.

A well-defined theory of change is essential for successful implementation and evaluation of any program, as it provides a strategic blueprint that guides decision-making and strategy development. It also allows stakeholders to understand the rationale behind specific interventions and how they are intended to contribute to overall goals. This systematic approach ensures that programs are not just reactive but are designed with a clear understanding of the mechanisms needed to facilitate the desired change, ultimately increasing the likelihood of success.

This underscores the importance of having a structured approach to program planning rather than merely listing outcomes or relying on assumptions about success.